The South China Sea Conflict: Southeast Asia's Economic and Strategic Dilemma between China and the United States

FLORENCIA RUBIOLO

Toronto

Congreso; 60th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association (ISA); 2019

International Studies Association

The asymmetric distribution of power in the Asian maritime region is increasingly favoring China, generating a growing apprehension in its neighbors that, faced with their evident vulnerability, fear about Beijing's intentions. Although there are multiple mechanisms to avoid conflict escalation, it is the balance of power that allows maintaining the status quo and limiting China's behavior against other coastal countries. This balance, given the disparity of military and economic power between Southeast Asia and China, can only be achieved with the intervention of an extra-regional power that can balance Chinese capabilities, and it is the United States that is fulfilling that role. The renewed North American participation as guarantor of the regional security has generated new bonds of strategic dependence for Southeast Asia, which in turn have economies that depend mainly on China. That is, for the Southeast Asian countries involved, two parallel dependency links are being reinforced: on the one hand with the United States in the strategic dimension, and on the other with China in the economic dimension. It is in light of these analytical concepts and fabrics that we will address Southeast Asia's interests and recent policies towards the conflict in the South China Sea.