Presentación Oral: How landscape simulation can assess cumulative effects of habitat disturbance and help recover the steeply declining Olive-sided Flycatcher

NORRIS, ANDREA R; 8 AUTORES; COCKLE, KL

Congreso; VII North American Ornithological Conference; 2020

We examined the cumulative effects of multiple human-induced and natural stressors on future breeding habitat supply for the Olive-sided Flycatcher (Contopus cooperi, OSFL), a migratory aerial insectivore associated with open forest and a species at risk in Canada. First, we modeled OSFL habitat suitability in the Peace River region (British Columbia) by comparing additive and interactive Bayesian generalized linear mixed-effects models (binomial family) that predicted OSFL occurrence in 1462 point count surveys (1997-2011) from spatially- and temporally-matched forest inventory data. Probability of OSFL occurrence declined with clearcut size and was highest 15-20 years after logging, and in stands attacked by Mountain Pine Beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae). Second, we used spatially explicit state-and-transition simulation models (STSM) with 40 Monte Carlo simulations to project the cumulative effects of oil and gas development, forest harvesting, fires, insect outbreaks, and regrowth under two landscape management scenarios: business-as-usual, and conservation (restricted timing and size of cutblocks). Third, we used our best-supported habitat suitability models to predict habitat suitability for OSFL in each 90 m2 pixel at baseline (current conditions) and under each future scenario. Landscape simulation allows the incorporation of cumulative effects of multiple stressors into projections of suitable breeding habitat, but OSFL and other aerial insectivores spend 3/4 of the year on migration and wintering grounds, and future conservation goals should incorporate stressors from across the annual cycle.