MODELING THE POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION OF AEDES AEGYPTI IN THE CITY OF CORDOBA, ARGENTINA

ESTALLO E.L.; LUDUEÑA ALMEIDA, FF; ALMIRON , WR; SANGERMANO, F.; FRÍAS, M; LIVDAHL, T.; GRECH, M; AINETE, M

New Orleans

Congreso; ASTMH SIXTY-SEVENTH ANNUAL MEETING; 2018

American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

156. En el libro de Resumenes:Aedes aegypti as an urban mosquito is involved in the transmission of numerous viruses, including dengue, chikungunya and Zika. In Argentina Ae. aegypti is the main vector for dengue virus, involved in several outbreaks expanding from northern to central areas since 2009. In order to evaluate areas of potential vector-borne diseases transmission in Córdoba city, Argentina, we aim to identify the environmental, socio-economic and demographic factors driving the distribution of Ae.aegypti larval presence through spatial analysis in the form of species distribution models (SDMs). This modeling approach can identify relationships between known occurrences of a species and environmental data, in order to identify areas with habitats for Ae. aegypti and therefore risk for diseases. Maximum Entropy modeling was developed and models fit the training data well. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) average train >0.8, and fair extrapolation capacity (average test AUC>0.75). Human population density, distance to vegetation, and water channels were the main predictive variables for vector suitability areas. Results from this work will be useful to target surveillance and prevention measures, as well as for mosquito management.