Forecasting streamfloaws in the San Juan River Basin in Argentina

J. C. GIMÉNEZ; E. LENTINI; A. FERNÁNDEZ CIRELLI

Water sustainability in arid regions

Springer

Lugar: Berlín; Año: 2010; p. 261 - 274

San Juan province, located in western Argentina, presents great climatevariability with arid characteristics. Mean annual rainfall averages less than 100 mmfor the whole province, and snowmelt in the Andean upper basin provides the SanJuan River Basin with seasonal streamflow during summer, the period of highestwater demand for irrigation. Traditional streamflow forecasts for the San Juan Riverare based on statistical regression models that are strongly dependent on values ofsnowpack in winter months (July, August, and September) and streamflow valuesin the spring months. However, producing forecasts for San Juan River summerstreamflow using the Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (MEI) data inthe preceding June of the water year as an explicative variable can improve reservoiroperating system performance for irrigation. To demonstrate this, climate predictorssuch as the MEI were used to forecast San Juan River streamflows to providepredictability at a six-month lead time. A backpropagation neural model, based oncoupled data of snowpack and a climate predictor during the winter period, provedsuccessful in forecasting San Juan River flows during the following summer period.