An overview of Seasonal Forecast-related issues over the Pan-VAMOS domain.

SAULO, C.; MARENGO, J.; HIGGINS, W.; BERBERY, H.

Barcelona, España

Workshop; WCRP Workshop on Seasonal Prediction; 2007

Organización Meteorológica Mundial- WGSIP

The CLIVAR/VAMOS panel has recently celebrated its 10th Anniversary and concomitantly an overview of the main accomplishments has been done. The VAMOS Modeling component is being recognized as a cross-cutting theme because of its valuable efforts to promote the integration of the different science programs within VAMOS. Modeling within VAMOS has been continuously evolving, and is characterized by the maintenance of a multi-scale approach in which local processes are embedded in, and are fully coupled with, larger-scale dynamics. Most of the activities have taken advantage of the enhanced observations provided by field experiments, including the availability of enhanced re-analyses. Activities under the North American Monsoon Experiment are gradually contributing to the predictability activities of the Climate PredictionCenter, while model intercomparison activities have been carried out and a super-model ensemble over South America is experimentally operational at the University of Sao Paulo since 2005.The VAMOS community has been moving forward from the model assessment at different time/spatial scales to the model development and the hypothesis testing with a strong emphasis in the improvement of the warm season precipitation representation as well as the understanding of the main mechanisms underlying its variability. This presentation will discuss some of the results that highlight past and current achievements in relation with Seasonal Prediction over the Pan-VAMOS region. Special importance will be given to the discussion of the topics that the VAMOS community has identified as the most relevant elements, so as to provide guidance for future activities.