FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE AND CHANGES ON TIDES IN THE PATAGONIAN CONTINENTAL SHELF.

SIMIONATO, C. G.; LUZ CLARA TEJEDOR, M.; D'ONOFRIO, E.E.; MOREIRA, D.

Sesimbra

Congreso; ECSA 54 - Coastal systems under change: tuning assessment and management tools; 2014

Centro de Oceanografia, University of Lisboa, Portugal y Estuarine and Coastal Sciences Association

We investigate the effect of the future sea level rise (SLR) on the propagation of tides in the Patagonian Shelf. We run a numerical model for potential future SLR scenarios of 1, 2 and 10 m. The effect of flooding of low-lying land areas is also studied. Due to the morphological features and the sense of propagation of tidal waves, inundation does not significantly modify the solution in the Patagonian Shelf; nevertheless, in the Northern Argentinean Shelf dissipation is increased and results change. M2 amplitude responds to SLR in a spatially non uniform and non linear manner. Tidal dissipation by bottom friction increases by 16% for the more extreme scenario due to the increment of tidal amplitudes and currents over the Patagonian Shelf. Results suggest that changes in the extension and position of the tidal fronts will be significant, with a reduction/increase of the mixed areas in Southern/Northern Patagonia. The physical mechanisms for the modifications are changes of the tidal wave speed, the Rossby radius of deformation, the energy dissipation by bottom friction and the resonant properties of the basin. Similarly to studies performed for other coastal areas of the world, results indicate that important changes in the characteristics of the tides can occur if the SLR is large.