Climate Changes in Coastal Areas of Patagonia: Observed trends and future projections

PESSACG NATALIA LIZ; SILVINA A SOLMAN; J. BLAZQUEZ; J. LANCELOTTI

Global change in Atlantic coastal Patagonian ecosystems: A journey through time.

Springer

Lugar: Berlin; Año: 2021; p. 13 - 42

The aim of this chapter is to describe the current climate characteristics and to assess expected climate changes in Patagonia with an especial emphasis on coastal areas. In general, the climate in Patagonia has warmed up since 1950 and this trend will continue in the future. However, the situation is slightly different in coastal areas where temperature trends are weaker and even negative in several locations, while future projections indicate an increase in mean temperature. Although precipitation in coastal areas is scarce and there is a large interannual variability, trends indicate a slight decrease and future projections show wetter conditions in the northern coasts and dryer conditions in the southern ones. Additionally, precipitation extreme events are expected to increase in the future. Regarding wind intensity there is a clear negative trend for most of the coastal area except for the southern tip. Future projections confirm this pattern of change.The large-scale circulation variability affecting Patagonian climate is dominated by the Southern Annular Mode, with significant trend towards its positive polarity during the second half of the 20th century, and two Pacific-South American patterns associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Models project an increase in extreme phases of ENSO in response to global warming.