CONICET | Buscador de Institutos y Recursos Humanos

Empirical conditional probabilities of extreme monthly precipitations averaged over three regions of the southern part of La Plata basin were calculated as a function of three atmospheric indices; two of them represent low level moisture convergence and the third is related to the mid tropospheric circulation over southern South America. The first region includes southern Paraguay, north-eastern Argentina, north of Uruguay and the western sector of southern Brazil, the second region stretches over part of southern Brazil while the third surrounding the Plata Estuary extends over western Uruguay and eastern Argentina between 37ºS and 32ºS. Regional monthly precipitation was considered extreme when it exceeded its mean value plus one standard deviation. Conditional empirical probabilities of Months with Extreme Precipitation (MEP) are more than twice and even four times higher than climatic probabilities when they are calculated under the restriction that the atmospheric indices were beyond certain extreme thresholds empirically defined. Combined conditional probability are even higher when the values of two or the three indices over their respective thresholds take place at the same time, but these cases are less frequent. The index that renders higher conditional probabilities is the one that accounts for the low level moisture convergence in a region that is basically to the west and outside of the three regions. This reflects the fact that most of the mesoconvective systems, which originate to the west of these regions and then move eastwards, produce heavy precipitations that lead to monthly accumulated extremes.