A System for Risk Analysis considering atmospheric parameter uncertainty

SANDRA MARIELA GODOY; SCENNA, NICOLAS JOSE; ALEJANDRO SANTIAGO MIGUEL SANTA CRUZ

Rio de Janeiro

Congreso; ENPROMER 2005:the 4th Mercosur Congress on Process Systems Engineering and the 2nd Mercosur Congress on Chemical Engineering; 2005

UFRJ

This work presents a powerful computational tool, useful in risk assessment of hazardous materials releases. It is based on a new methodology which allows to handle the stochastic uncertainty of atmospheric parameters, critical for risk calculation when diffusion of hazardous gases or particulate matter occur as a consequence of an accidental release or emission. In fact, the random behaviour of wind intensity, wind direction, atmospheric stability and temperature given a time horizon (seasonal or a complete year), is taken into account considering also the day or night condition. Distributions to be used must be specific for the place under study. This methodology can be used for risk analysis of releases or emissions from static sources (for example a stack or a fixed tank in a facility) or from transportation accidents (road, train, maritime and pipeline transport) involving different scenarios. After a stochastic simulation based on well-known diffusion models (particulate matter, dense and light gases diffusion) is carried out, downwind concentrations are obtained, and individual and societal risks can be computed. All the subroutines and procedures have been integrated in a computer program which makes information management and result presentation easy. Finally, test results are shown to underline the main contribution of the new system.