Analysis of the projected extreme temperatures and precipitation and associated soil hydric conditions in the east-northeast of Argentina

PÁNTANO V. C., PENALBA O.C.

Conferencia; 13th International Meeting on Statistical Climatology; 2016

Climate extremes influence on soil hydric conditions causing an economic impact in the agricultureproduction in the east-northeast of Argentina (South America) which can be mitigated by anticipatingpotential changes. The objective of this work is to statistically analyze projections in mean and extremevalues of the main meteorological variables participating in soil-atmosphere interaction, and associatedimpact on soil hydric conditions.Firstly, projected monthly maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation by the end of thiscentury, were analyzed using seven Global Climate Models selected from CMIP5, under two emissionscenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Since changes are projected to occur on both mean and extreme values,they were quantified based on probabilistic intervals considering the entire frequency distribution.Secondly, media and standard deviation were tested while model uncertainty was assessed through therelation between signal (change) and noise (model variability). Finally, projected changes were appliedto observed series for each probabilistic interval, as input variables for the water balance model in orderto obtain consequent soil hydric condition.Temperatures and precipitation are projected to increase in a higher rate for extreme high and lowvalues, respectively. Temperatures show higher statistical significance, better agreement betweenmodels and lower model uncertainty than precipitation. Soil response to these changes show thatprojected increased temperatures reduce the impact of extreme high precipitation but favors deficitconditions, especially in the western zone where potential evapotranspiration becomes more important.This contributes to the design of strategies of adaptation to eventually attenuate the vulnerability of theagriculture production.