Summer daily extreme precipitation in central-eastern Argentina: Potencial predictors.

PENALBA O. C., POGGI M. M., BETTOLLI M. L.,

Conferencia; 13th International Meeting on Statistical Climatology; 2016

The main objective of this work was to explore climate and local indices as potentialpredictors of summer daily extreme precipitation in the center-east of Argentina. Thepurpose of this analysis was to perform a statistically model based on the relationshipfound in seasonal and monthly scale. In this region, the occurrence of extreme eventshas both social and economic relevance since it affect a wide variety of activities, suchas agriculture and hydric activities, etc., in densely populated area. To this end, theintensity of seasonal and monthly mean daily extreme precipitation was used,estimated as the rate between the seasonal (December, January and February) andmonthly cumulative precipitation, respectively, above the daily 75th percentile and thenumber of days that recorded this precipitation. Observed daily precipitation data of30 weather stations of the database CLARIS-LPB for the period 1960-2012 was used.Different climate and regional indices were considered as potential predictors as wellas local moisture conditions and temperature in the Atlantic Ocean in regions closer tothe area of concern. The relationship between predictors and daily extremeprecipitation was studied using the Pearson correlation coefficient with a phase shiftup to 6 months prior. Different intra-seasonal signals were found, that led to performthe statistical modeling in a monthly time scale. The statistical modeling of therelationship between the selected predictors and predictand was made based oncanonical-correlation analysis (CCA). Finally, the forecasting equation obtained by CCAwas calibrated and validated using cross-validation technique.