Extreme events in the La Plata basin: a retrospective analysis of what we have learned during CLARIS-LPB Project

CARRIL, CAVALCANTI, MENÉNDEZ, SÖRENSSON A, LÓPEZ-FRANCA N, RIVERA J, ROBLEDO F, ZANINELLI P, AMBRIZZI T, PENALBA O,; DA ROCHA R, SÁNCHEZ E, BETTOLLI M, PESSACG N, RENOM M, RUSCICA R, SOLMAN S, TENCER B, GRIMM A, RUSTICUCCI M, CHERCHI A, TEDESCHI R, ZAMBONI L.

CLIMATE RESEARCH

INTER-RESEARCH

Lugar: Oldendorf/Luhe; Año: 2016 vol. 68 p. 95 - 116

0936-577X

Extreme climate events over the La Plata basin (LPB) can produce significant impactsdue to the importance of the regional agriculture and hydroelectric power production for the localeconomy. Progress on describing, projecting and understanding extremes in LPB, in the frameworkof the CLARIS-LPB Europe-South America Network for Climate Change Assessment and ImpactStudies in La Plata Basin Project, are reviewed. The paper is based on recent studies and publications,as well as some new diagnostics as indicators of works in progress, and can be considered as anupdate for the LPB region of previous reviews by Cavalcanti et al. (2015; J Hydrol 523:211?230) andRusticucci (2012; Atmos Res 106:1?17). Despite the significant advances on regional extremes, somegaps have been identified, and many challenges remain. Much of the recent progress considers tem-perature and precipitation extremes on timescales varying from synoptic to long-term variability andclimate change, essential for impact and vulnerability assessments. Research lines on extremes re-quiring further efforts include the relative roles of local versus remote forcings, the impact of land useand land management changes, the specific role of soil moisture and land-atmosphere feedbacks ascatalysts for heat waves, the impact of the local inhomogeneities in soil moisture, feedback and un-certainties in projections of extremes, as well as seasonal forecast and climate change attributionstudies. We suggest combining intensive monitoring and modelling to address these issues.