Modeling potential site productivity for Austrocedrus chilensis trees in northern Patagonia (Argentina)

FACUNDO J. ODDI; CASAS, CECILIA; MATÍAS G. GOLDENBERG; LANGLOIS JUAN PABLO; LANDESMANN JENIFER; GOWDA, JUAN H; KITZBERGER THOMAS; GARIBALDI, LUCAS A

FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT

ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV

Lugar: Amsterdam; Año: 2022

0378-1127

Sustainable management of native species is essential in 33 regions where forest iscontinually decreasing, such as South America. A first step for sustainable management is todevelop models of productivity and site quality, which are usually related to the height ofdominant trees. The aim of this study was to model the height (h) of dominant trees of southernSouth American conifer Austrocedrus chilensis based on climate, topography and soil predictors,and tree age using a mixed-effect modeling approach under a multi-model inference framework.Tree data (h and age) were collected in 43 plots placed throughout the natural distribution rangeof A. chilensis in northern Patagonia (Argentina). Soil characterization was carried out in 32 outof 43 plots. Our results indicate that dominant trees are taller in cooler and wetter sites with moresoil carbon and lower soil acidity. The model predicted h with ≈3 m (19%) error and explainedabout 85% of variability in h (conditional R2=0.84). When considering only climate variables, theexplained variance was reduced by 7% although the loss of predictive capability was notsubstantial (3.1 m prediction error). This study provides the first regional statistical modelpredicting productivity indicators in A. chilensis. With this model, site quality can be classifiedjust using a few climatic variables available from satellite-based geospatial information and thenimproved by including edaphic information (soil carbon, pH). The model could have usefulnessbeyond forestry, for example to foresee climate change effects on ecosystem services associatedto forest productivity.51