GOWDA juan Janakiram Haridas
congresos y reuniones científicas
Can we use our history to model our future? Land-cover change analysis and spatially explicit models as complementary tools for forest management decisions
GOWDA, J.H.; KITZBERGER, T.; MERMOZ, M.
Conferencia; IUFRO Landscape Ecology Conference; 2012
Whereas forest practices may condition the dynamics of any given forest for many years, at a regional level forest cover and productivity is mainly determined by alternative and/or complementary uses of forest land. So regardless of our efforts in managing our forests in a sustainable way, the distribution and condition of today´s forest reflects primarily variables that shaped our historical socio-economic relation to them. Land use/land cover change studies based on commercial satellite data allow us to trace back at least for 40 years of change of forest cover in most regions of the world. Combination of this data with old maps, fire scars and traditional dendrocronologic studies is helping us to explore further back, to the effects of changes in agricultural practices, population densities and patterns of colonization by different cultures. Further, digital elevation models and long-term records of regional precipitation, wind and temperature series allow us to test hypotheses regarding the dynamics of these changes. Spatially explicit landscape models are a much less explored tool for understanding the dynamics of regional changes. We propose that the combination of traditional LULC analysis with mechanistic landscape models may help us understanding the short, medium and long term effect of political decisions regarding land use priorities, conservation and restoration of forest and forest land.. In this presentation I will combine the results of two recently published studies with un published data from forests of Northern Patagonia future short and medium term scenarios associated with current land-use trends and legislation.