Translating Niche Features: Modeling Differential Exposure of Argentinian Reptiles to Global Climate Change

NORI JAVIER; MORENO AZÓCAR D.L; CRUZ FB; BONINO MF; LEYNAUD GC

AUSTRAL ECOLOGY

WILEY-BLACKWELL PUBLISHING, INC

Lugar: Londres; Año: 2016 vol. 41 p. 373 - 381

1442-9985

Global Climate Change (GCC) affects the distributional ranges of ectotherms and maybe the cause of several conservation problems, threatening the existence of manyspecies. Species exposure (and hence vulnerability) to GCC is linked to features oftheir climatic niches, and therefore to characteristics of their geographic ranges. Inorder to find a pattern of response of Argentinian reptiles to GCC, we performedPhylogenetic Generalized Least Squares Models, using species exposure to GCC as aresponse variable and (a) niche properties (breadth and position of the species in theclimate space), and (b) general features of the distribution of species, as predictors.Our results suggest that the best way to explain GCC sensitivity is by combiningbreadth and position of climatic niche of the species or their indicators. Our best modelshows that, in our study area, species with the narrowest distributional ranges, thatalso inhabit the highest altitudes, are the most exposed to the effects of GCC. In thissense, reptile species from Yungas and Puna ecorregions could be especiallyvulnerable to the effects of GCC. We believe that these kinds of models may representan interesting tool in order to determine species and places particularly threatened bythe effects of GCC, which should be strongly considered in conservation planning.