Vulnerability to floods in the metropolitan region of Buenos Aires under future climate change

BARROS, VICENTE; MENÉNDEZ, ANGEL; NATENZON, CLAUDIA; KOKOT, ROBERTO; CODIGNOTTO, JORGE; RÉ, MARIANO; BRONSTEIN, PABLO; CAMILLIONI, INÉS; LUDUEÑA, SEBASTIÁN; GONZÁLEZ, SILVIA; RÍOS, DIEGO

2002-12-02/2006-12-29

1-36

Socioambiental

Ordenamiento territorial

The dimensions and shape of the Plata River estuary favor quasi-maritime dynamicconditions; storm winds produce surges that when enhanced by astronomical tides lead toextreme water levels. Thus, most of the Argentine coastal area of the Plata River is subject to recurrent storm surge floods, which will become more frequent as the mean sea level rises due to global climate change.Population on the coastal area of the Plata River numbers near 14 million, including the metropolitan region of the Buenos Aires. A considerable part of this area is between 2.8 and 5 m above mean sea level, and it could be subject to storm floods in this century.Very low areas, which likely will be permanently flooded by 2070/2080, are now scarcely populated because they are frequently flooded by storm surges. As a result of this adaptation to present conditions, the social impact of future permanent flooding will be small. Therefore, climate change vulnerability in this coastal zone is mostly conditioned by its future exposure to extreme surges.