Evaluation of Health and Economic Impact of the Current Policy to Eliminate Industrial Trans Fats from Processed Foods in Argentina by 2014

RUBINSTEIN ADOLFO LUIS; ELORRIAGA NATALIA; GARAY ULISES; POGGIO ROSANA; CAPORALE JOAQUIN; MOZAFFARIAN DARIUSH; MATTA GABRIELA; ANDRES PICHON-RIVIERE

San Francisco

Congreso; American Heart Association's Epidemiology and Prevention/Nutrition, Physical Activity, and Metabolism 2014 Scientific Sessions; 2014

American Heart Association

Objectives: Industrial trans fatty acids (TFA) increase CHD risk, but use remains high in developing nations. From 2004-2014, Argentina initiated policies to reduce industrial TFA: voluntary agreements with industry in 2004, mandatory labeling in 2006, and elimination by Food Code by 2014. We aimed to evaluate the policy?s impact on CHD, DALYs and costs. Methods: A review of diet trials, local studies, and consultations with experts was performed to estimate baseline TFA intake in 2004 and types of replacements used by industry from 2004-2014. We built an epidemiological simulation model calculating 3 scenarios to estimate effects of isocaloric replacement of TFA with alternative fats/oils, based on (1) changes in the total:HDL-C ratio (Δ TC/HDL) and (2) changes in other risk biomarkers, and the predicted effects of these biomarker changes on CHD; and (3) observed associations of TFA which CHD events in prospective studies, which may better account for pleiotrophic effects. We used Framingham risk equations to estimate first CHD events with vs. without the policy according to individual age-sex-risk factor distributions (including ΔTC/HDL), utilizing an Argentine population-based sample of 4,000 adults weighted to the full population. Results: After 2014, this policy would prevent each year from 1.3% (based on Δ TC/HDL only; to 7.4% (based on pleiotrophic effects) of all CHD events in Argentina (Table). Accounting for intervention costs and averted events, the policy is actually cost-saving. Conclusions: This is the first model evaluating the impact of an actual policy for eliminating TFA in a developing country. Given the 165,000 annual CHD events in Argentina, at an annual incidence rate of almost 1% in adults, near elimination of industrial TFA might avert under the most conservative assumptions, 1.3% of CHD and saved $36 million. In other low-resource settings, where TFA intake is higher, these effects could be larger. Our findings inform policy makers in Argentina and other developing countries on the huge impact of this policy