Water availability for a growing population in the face of climate and land use change

GARCIA, C. L.; KRAUSE, P.; GARCÍA, C.M.; RAVELO, A.; WOLFGANG-ALBERT FLÜGEL

Congreso; XIVth IWRA World Water Congress; 2011

IAHR

In  Argentina,  about  three  million  people  depend  on  water  coming  from  the  Córdoba  mountain region.  A  recent  increase  in  population  and  climate  variability  has  augmented  and  intensified events of water scarcity with direct social and economic impacts. Moreover, the effects of ongoing land use changes on the basin hydrology are poorly understood and accounted for in current water management  planning.  To  establish  an  Integrated  Water  Resources  Management  (IWRM)  in  the region, it is crucial to estimate the water availability during the dry season, the effects of land use changes  and  to  assess  drought  events.  A  distributed  and  continuous  hydrological  model  (J2000) was  built  to  estimate  storages  and  runoff  levels  of  a  meso-catchment.  Different  climate  scenarios were  evaluated  for  short  term  forecast  and  the  effects  on  water  cycle  were  analyzed  based  on different  simulations.  The  use  of  different  indexes  and  scenarios  proved  to  be  very  useful  in understanding how different drought periods may have different effects on the hydrology of the San Antonio River Basin.