Niche squeeze induced by climate change of the coldtolerant subtropical montane Podocarpus parlatorei

QUIROGA MARIA PAULA; KITZBERGER THOMAS; PREMOLI ANDREA C.

ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE

THE ROYAL SOCIETY

Año: 2018

2054-5703

Under changing climates, the persistence of montane subtropical taxa may be threatened as suitable habitats decrease with elevation. We developed future environmental niche models (ENNMs) for Podocarpus parlatorei, the only conifer from southern Yungas in South America, and projected it onto two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios based on 13 global climate models for years 2050 and 2070. Modeling identified that P. parlatorei is sensitive and restricted to a relatively narrow range of both warm season temperature and precipitation.By mid-late 21st century areas of high suitability for P. paralatorei will not migrate but overall suitability will become substantially reduced across its whole range and surrounding areas. Despite extensive areas in high mountain ranges where the species may encounter thermally optimal conditions to potentially that allow upward local migration, these same areas will likely become strongly aridified under future conditions. On the other hand, lowland locations were rainfall levels will not change substantially (e.g. northern range), excessive warming will likely generate abiotic and biotic restrictions (e.g. competition with lowland species) for this cold-tolerant species. Urgent measures should be developed for the local long-term preservation of the gene pool of such unique conifer that characterizes Yungas forests for reasons of biodiversity and ecosystem services.