Volcanic Ash Dispersion Modeling and Forecasting in Argentina. Recent and Future Developments

OSORES, M.S.; COLLINI,E.A.; MINGARI,L.; FOLCH,A.; RUIZ, J.; TOYOS, G.; PUJOL, G.; FARÍAS, C.; ALEXANDER, P.; SUAYA, M.; SCHONHOLZ, T.; VIRAMONTE,J.G.; VILLAROSA, G.

Congreso; 26thIUGG General Assembly; 2015

This is an overview of the activities related to volcanic ash dispersion modeling in Argentina,performed by a multi-disciplinary group of researchers of several institutions from Latin America and Spain. The research of these phenomena by using FALL3D eulerian transport and depositionnumerical model was developed. The performance of this model on past eruptions has beeninvestigated; in addition, volcanic ash dispersion forecasts were produced on a quasi operationalbasis during Cordón Caulle?s eruption to support the Buenos Aires Volcanic Ash Advisory Center(VAAC). Ongoing sensitivity experiments aim to investigate the effects of particle size and density, ash plume height and mass vertical distribution on the model?s performance. Volcanic ash resuspension events, such as the one occurred in Oct-2011 in Argentina has been and are currently being studied by using a specific module recently included in FALL3D and NOAA HYSPLIT trajectory model. We have recently started working on the comparison of model outputs and quantitative satellite retrievals (i.e. mass loadings). This research will lead, eventually, to the development of mixed products (satellite + model) and to the improvement of volcanic ash forecasts (i.e. inverse modeling). Finally, to improve model initialization on real time basis by means of an assessment of pre-eruptive scenarios a database is being developed that includes volcano location and key volcanological attributes inherent to the eruptive history such as column height, mass discharge rate and particle size distribution. The ultimate aim is to develop and implement an operational ensemble dispersion forecasting system using input initial conditions constrained by the combined satellite-model products.