CLARIS LPB WP3: Observational data and past climate variability across the La Plata Basin

RUSTICUCCI M; JONES P; J AMIEL; ARIZTEGUI, D; JP BOULANGER; CÓRDOBA, F.; A FARALL; GUERRA, L; D. LISTER; PENALBA, O; PIOVANO, EDUARDO

CLIVAR EXCHANGES

WCRP

Año: 2011 vol. 16 p. 12 - 14

1026-0471

Climate over LPB shows variability on several time scales, from subseasonal to interdecadal and longer. Moreover, the tropical oceans, particularly the tropical Pacific, play an important role on all time scales. Coupled models are able to simulate many of the main characteristics of LPB climate, though they tend to fail in reproducing some regional fundamental patterns like the SACZ, as well as the patterns of regional climate variability and associated atmospheric teleconnections on long time scales. The results presented here strongly suggest that climate projections for the next 20-30 years need to take into account the large inter-decadal variability. Decadal prediction experiments that are currently being carried out using the new generation of coupled models may help address this predictability issue. To finish we mention other topics that need to be addressed in order to reduce the uncertainties of future climate projections over LPB: (1) new methods to determine the evolution of the rainfall pdf that weight models’s skill for the LPB, (2) role of the land-atmosphere coupling and land use in the regional climate, (3) role of the air-sea interaction in the southwestern Atlantic and its role in maintaining the SACZ, (4) role of the stratosphere and O3 recovery on SAM and the impact on LPB, (5) paleoclimate reconstructions that help determine the natural variability in LPB during the last thousand years and help test the models.