A kinetic model coupling crowd movement with infectious disease contagion

AGNELLI, JUAN PABLO; BUFFA, BRUNO ADOLFO; KNOPOFF, DAMIÁN ALEJANDRO; TORRES, GERMÁN ARIEL

Bilbao

Conferencia; 13th Conference on Dynamical Systems Applied to Biology and Natural Sciences; 2022

BCAM

We present a multiscale approach for the modeling of disease spreading and crowd movement in bounded environments during a short period of time. The model is based on the kinetic theory of active particles and consider a system of interacting pedestrians, whose microscopic state is identified by their position and velocity direction. To model the disease contagion we add a microscopic variable accounting for the individual state related to an infectious disease: namely, pedestrians can be either susceptible, exposed or infected. We will introduce the mathematical model and show how the transitions modeled at the microscopic level affect the macroscopic dynamics of the system. A qualitative analysis will be performed and some numerical simulations to study the sensitivity to model parameters and to understand how exposure to an infectious agent may promote disease spreading will be discussed.