Development pathways and their feedback to atmospheric carbon budget

PULIAFITO, ENRIQUE; CREMADES, HEBE

Copenhagen

Simposio; International Conference Climate Change, Global Risks, Challenges and decision; 2009

We are reporting on the results of a dynamic conceptual model which links the main population and economics state variables to the natural atmospheric, terrestrial and oceanic processes that balance the natural carbon levels and fluxes. This model first computes from the year 1850 through to the year 2200, world population, GDP, GDP per capita, energy consumption and carbon emissions and their impact on the global carbon budget through the atmosphere, ocean, soil and vegetation. The model is organized in two modules. The first one computes population, GDP, GDP per capita, energy consumption and carbon emissions. The second module calculates the carbon balance (stocks and fluxes) through theatmosphere, ocean, soil and vegetation. As an application study, this article proposes three case scenarios, with diverse feedback mechanisms to evaluate the consequences on several economic pathways of development and their implication on carbon dioxide and temperature increase in the atmosphere.