Social Vulnerability and Demographic Dynamics in Argentina, 2001-07

GONZÁLEZ, LEANDRO M.

Marrakech (Marruecos)

Congreso; XXVI IUSSP INTERNATIONAL POPULATION CONFERENCE; 2009

INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR SCIENTIFIC STUDY OF POPULATION

An adjustment procedure of small population projections Is proposed in this paper, combining the techniques of components projections and symptomatic variables. Based on projections with two or more different migration scenario, symptomatic variables allow selecting the closest projection to poscensal estimation or defining a new projection. The poscensal migration derives from the proportional difference between the estimated population by symptomatic variables and the closer projections. This methodology is particularly useful in populations with high migratory movements. It is applied to Colon department (Cordoba, Argentina), a 100.000-inhabitant population, with an annual migration rate of 17 ‰ in 1991-2001 period. Population estimates are made until 2006 with records of births, deaths, primary students and voters. The 2008 provincial census allows evaluating the errors of estimates by symptomatic variables, and selecting the most effective procedures. KEY WORDS: POPULATION PROJECTION – SYMPTOMATIC VARIABLES – SMALL POPULATION