A Multivariate Approach to Study Drivers of Land-Cover Changes through Remote Sensing in the Dry Chaco of Argentina

HOYOS, LAURA; CABIDO, MARCELO; CINGOLANI, ANA

ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information

MDPI - Publisher of Open Access Journals

Lugar: Basilea; Año: 2018 vol. 7

Abstract: Land-cover changes are driven by different combinations of biophysical, economic, andcultural drivers that are acting at different scales. We aimed to (1) analyze trends in land use and landcover changes (conversion, abandonment, forest persistence) in the dry Chaco in central Argentina(1979 to 2010), and (2) examine how physical and socio-economic drivers have influenced thosechanges. Based on Landsat data, we obtained the proportion of 16 classes of land cover changes for81 individual circular samples. We performed a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to identify themain trends of change across the whole region. To explore the relationships between the changes inland cover and drivers, we developed a GIS comprising thematic maps representing the differentdrivers. The drivers were first correlated with the two first PCA axes, and in a second approximationwere subjected to multiple regression analyses. We obtained in this way the best model to explaineach PCA axis. The highest conversion, as indicated by PCA axis 1, was experienced by flat areasclose to roads and with the highest annual rainfall. Besides agricultural expansion that was triggeredby precipitation increase as a major driver of forest conversion, changes that were observed duringthe period 1979?2010, may have also been influenced by several other driving forces acting at differentspatial scales and contexts.