INVESTIGADORES
LUCINI Maria magdalena
congresos y reuniones científicas
Título:
Multi-analysis Ensamble in Polar Regions
Autor/es:
LUCINI, MARÍA MAGDALENA; SHEPHERD, THEODORE; MCFARLANE, NORMAN; POLAVARAPU, SAROJA
Reunión:
Conferencia; American Geophysical Union 2010: The meeting of the Americas; 2010
Institución organizadora:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Resumen:
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t
is widely known that an ensemble of model analyses (multi model
analyses) outperforms the analysis of a single model. How to combine
these models is a matter of debate, while some authors say that
averaging the ensemble members is accurate and reliable enough, some
others propose other methods trying to improve results obtained from
an average of model analyses.Our
goal is to develop a statistical framework to obtain optimal
estimates of the weights assigned to each ensemble member,
identifying and quantifying at the same time model errors and
uncertainties.In
this work we present the methodology used for this task and we
present a case study using an ensemble of middle atmospheric analyses
from different operational and research centers and observations of
temperature and ozone, all of them specially produced for the
International Polar Year 2007-2008 (IPY) project, to produce a best
estimate of the state of the atmosphere in the polar regions.