Water Management and Climate Change in the Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area, Argentina

LENTINI, EMILIO, J; BRENNER, FEDERICA S.; CATENAZZI, ANDREA; DE GOUVELLO, BERNARD; MERCADIER, AUGUSTO; MERLINSKY, MARÍA GABRIELA; POCHAT, VICTOR; SCNEIER MADANES, GRACIELA

Paris

Conferencia; WATER, MEGACITIES AND GLOBAL CHANGE; 2015

UNESCO

Climate Change Impact on the metropolitan urbanizationThe metropolitan urbanization of Buenos Aires is highly exposed to climate risks arising from rainfall increase, temperature rising and greater surfaces damaged by floods. Different studies point out the possible increase of floods due to the Rio de la Plata level rise (Barros et al. 2005).Among the expected changes it can be mentioned that the average annual temperature increase range is likely to be about 0.5°C for the short term (2016-2035), while, at worst, the rising temperature could exceed 3°C. Furthermore, increasing rainfalls are expected, especially for the worst scenario of the period 2012-2100. The possible rates of annual rainfall increase goes between 1.4% and 7.6%. In general, increasing precipitation is observed in the whole region, but most significant changes are found in AMBA´s area. Winds future scenarios show increasing intensities and direction changes to the East. Besides a 0.6 m increase in the average sea level is likely to take place this century, with a possible variation of 0.30 m to 1.00 m. With the maximum expected scenario of 1 m increase of sea level towards 2100, the salinity front will not move from its current position, without affecting the nature of Rio de la Plata freshwater. According to regional reports, increasing extreme hot temperature trend and heat waves are likely to continue, being higher in urban areas, due to the urban heat island effect. The AMBA faces different problems and challenges connected with water resources with different temporalities (permanent and current, short and long-term, temporary and structural); difficulties of different nature (political, environmental, urban, social, economic, legal, etc.) and different level of significance and urgency; different value and sensing in the public opinion and in those public official responsible for public policies planning. Considering this scenario, the climate change impact is not just one of the problems, but it can make the existing ones even worse increasing vulnerability and inequality.One of the main questions set forth is: which would be a government´s encouragement to take measures on climate change effects which are likely to occur out of their management period? Within a political agenda in which emergencies usually prevail, and taking into account the short visibility of the relationship between the critical nature of some environmental and urban problems and the climate change in urban policies design.