Modeling the potential distribution of Aedes aegypti in the city of Córdoba, Argentina.

ESTALLO EL; SANGERMANO F; GRECH MG; LUDUEÑA- ALMEIDA FF; FRÍAS-CÉSPEDES M; AINETE M; ALMIRÓN WR; LIVDAHL T

New Orleans

Congreso; 67th American Society of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene (ASTMH); 2018

ASTMH

Aedes aegypti, an urban mosquito, is involved in the transmission of numerous viruses, including dengue, chikungunya and Zika. In Argentina Ae. aegypti is the main vector for dengue virus, involved in several outbreaks expanding from northern to central areas since 2009. In order to evaluate potential vector-borne diseases transmission in Córdoba city, Argentina, we aim to identify the environmental, socio-economic and demographic factors driving the distribution of Ae. aegypti larval presence through spatial analysis in the form of species distribution models (SDMs). A maximum entropy species distribution model was developed to identify the relationship between known occurrences of Ae. aegypti and 11 factors. The model identified suitable breeding areas for Ae. aegypti, as location with high Human population density, in close proximity to vegetation, and near water channels. The model goodness of fit was good, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) greater than 0.8 and presented a fair extrapolation capacity (average test AUC>0.75). Results from this work will allow for target surveillance and prevention measures, as well as for mosquito management within areas of high habitat suitability for the species.