Hantavirus reservoir Oligoryzomys longicaudatus spatial distribution sensitivity to climate change scenarios in Argentine Patagonia

CARBAJO, ANIBAL; VERA, CAROLINA; GONZALEZ, PAULA

International Journal of Health Geographics

BioMed Central Ltd

Lugar: Londres, Reino Unido; Año: 2009 vol. 88 p. 44 - 54

1476-072X

Background: Oligoryzomys longicaudatus (colilargo) is the rodent responsible for hantaviruspulmonary syndrome (HPS) in Argentine Patagonia. In past decades (1967–1998), trends ofprecipitation reduction and surface air temperature increase have been observed in westernPatagonia. We explore how the potential distribution of the hantavirus reservoir would changeunder different climate change scenarios based on the observed trends.Methods: Four scenarios of potential climate change were constructed using temperature andprecipitation changes observed in Argentine Patagonia between 1967 and 1998: Scenario 1assumed no change in precipitation but a temperature trend as observed; scenario 2 assumed nochanges in temperature but a precipitation trend as observed; Scenario 3 included changes in bothtemperature and precipitation trends as observed; Scenario 4 assumed changes in bothtemperature and precipitation trends as observed but doubled. We used a validated spatialdistribution model of O. longicaudatus as a function of temperature and precipitation. From themodel probability of the rodent presence was calculated for each scenario.Results: If changes in precipitation follow previous trends, the probability of the colilargo presencewould fall in the HPS transmission zone of northern Patagonia. If temperature and precipitationtrends remain at current levels for 60 years or double in the future 30 years, the probability of therodent presence and the associated total area of potential distribution would diminish throughoutPatagonia; the areas of potential distribution for colilargos would shift eastwards. These resultssuggest that future changes in Patagonia climate may lower transmission risk through a reductionin the potential distribution of the rodent reservoir.Conclusion: According to our model the rates of temperature and precipitation changesobserved between 1967 and 1998 may produce significant changes in the rodent distribution in anequivalent period of time only in certain areas. Given that changes maintain for 60 years or doublein 30 years, the hantavirus reservoir Oligoryzomys longicaudatus may contract its distribution inArgentine Patagonia extensively.