Climate change and the distribution and conservation of the world's highest elevation woodlands in the South American Altiplano

CUYCKENS, G.A.E.; CHRISTIE, D.A.; DOMIC, A.I.; MALIZIA, L.R.; RENISON, D.

GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE

ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV

Año: 2016 vol. 137 p. 79 - 87

0921-8181

Climate change is becoming an increasing threat to biodiversity. Consequently, methods for delineation, establishmentand management of protected areas must consider the species´ future distribution in response to futureclimate conditions. Biodiversity in high altitude semiarid regions may be particularly threatened by future climatechange. In this study we assess the main environmental variables that best explain present day presenceof the world´s highest elevation woodlands in the South American Altiplano, and model how climate changemay affect the future distribution of this unique ecosystem under different climate change scenarios. Thesewoodlands are dominated by Polylepis tarapacana (Rosaceae), a species that forms unique biological communitieswith important conservation value. Our results indicate that five environmental variables are responsiblefor 91% and 90.3% of the present and future P. tarapacana distribution models respectively, and suggest that atthe end of the 21st century, there will be a significant reduction (56%) in the potential habitat for this speciesdue to more arid conditions. Since it is predicted that P. tarapacana´s potential distribution will be severely reducedin the future, we propose a new network of national protected areas across this species distributionrange in order to insure the future conservation of this unique ecosystem. Based on an extensive literature reviewwe identify research topics and recommendations for on-ground conservation and management of P. tarapacanawoodlands.