BECAS
GONZÁLEZ Fernando Antonio Ignacio
artículos
Título:
Natural Disasters and Mortality: A Probabilistic Analysis for Argentina (1970-2015)
Autor/es:
FERNANDO ANTONIO IGNACIO GONZÁLEZ
Revista:
Revista de Estudios Andaluces
Editorial:
Editorial Universidad de Sevilla
Referencias:
Lugar: Sevilla; Año: 2020 p. 78 - 95
ISSN:
0212-8594
Resumen:
The frequency and intensity of natural disasters are expected to increase due to climate change. In this context, this work advances in the estimation of an absolutemeasure of mortality risk generated by natural disasters, in regions of Argentina. Inparticular, exceedance probabilities of mortality are estimated using the informationdiffusion method.The historical data of natural disasters provided by the records of DesInventar areused. These records cover the 1970-2015 period and are published by the SocialStudies Network in Disaster Prevention in Latin America (LA RED).The results suggest that the Centro region is the one with the highest risk of absolutemortality, while the Noreste region has the lowest risk levels. In a given year there isa 0.93 probability that, at least, one death will occur due to natural disasters in theCentro region. In the Noreste region, this probability is 0.77. The results are robustand significant.