A New Population Control Factor for Aedes aegypti Nonlinear Stochastic Model

VICTORIA ROMEO AZNAR; HERNÁN SOLARI; SYLVIA FISCHER; MARÍA SOL DE MAJO; MARCELO JAVIER OTERO

joao pessoa

Workshop; Workshop on nonlinear physics and applications; 2011

universidade federal do rio grande do sul

We developed a nonlinear stochastic model for the population dynamics of the Aedes aegypti mosquito. This mosquito is the main vector of worldwide emblematic diseases like dengue and yellow fever. We seek to propose a simple model based on the Aedes aegypti biology. Climatic factors are known to be important for the mosquito development. A previous version of our model only considered the temperature. By introducing the rain effect in the eggs hatching, we found the need to update the previous population regulating factor. Several works [Macia, Rev. Soc. Entomol. Argent. 68 (1-2): 107-114, 2009, Barbosa, Environ. Entomol. 1: 89-91, 1972, Arrivillaga J. Vector Ecol. 6 11-20, 2004] show that a high density of larvae in the breeding site produces a higher death rate for larvae and an increase in the developmental time from larva to pupa. In this model we incorporated these effects as a new population control and we interpret them as a net effect of overcrowding stress that the larvae suffer and the intra specific competition for food. Finally we compared the results of the developed program with the previous model as well as with data obtained in field studies performed in the temperate city of Buenos Aires, Argentina.