Verificación de los pronósticos del modelo WRF-ARW /SHN-SMN utilizando el MET para la primavera del 2011

GISELA CHARÓ; ESTELA COLLINI; MARIA EUGENIA DILLON

San Miguel de Tucuman

Congreso; 26ª. Reunión Científica de Geofísica y Geodesia; 2012

Asociación Argentina de Geofísicos y Geodestas

In this work we evaluate the WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting ? Advanced Research Weather) v3.1.1 (WRF/SHN-SMN), implemented at the National Meteorological Service of Argentina since February 2010, by applying MET (Model Evaluation Tool) v3.1. Here we apply the MET PointStat tool, which presents different methods to interpolate forecasts to the observation locations. The ability of the algorithms was investigated and the least squares method LS_FIT was chosen. The PointStat was applied to compare the WRF-ARW forecasts with the upper air observations made at Córdoba, Resistencia, Mendoza, Ezeiza, and Santa Rosa stations for the 2011 spring. The evaluation was applied to temperature and winds at standard levels. Scatter plots between observations and forecasts of temperature and winds at standard levels as well as between observations and the differences between forecasts and observations, were made for the 12hrs, 36hrs and 60hrs. In addition the frequency distributions of the forecasts errors and the MAE boxplots were calculated. To evaluate the differences between ETA operational forecast and WRF-ARW, the MAE average for the temperature profile was made.