Cyber Attribution: An Argumentation-Based Approach

PAULO SHAKARIAN; GERARDO I. SIMARI; GEOFFREY MOORES; SIMON PARSONS

Cyber Warfare: Building the Scientific Foundation

Springer

Año: 2015; p. 151 - 171

Attributing a cyber-operation through the use of multiple pieces of technical evidence (i.e., malware reverse-engineering and source tracking) and conventional intelligence sources (i.e., human or signals intelligence) is a difficult problem not only due to the effort required to obtain evidence, but the ease with which an adversary can plant false evidence. In this paper, we introduce a formal reasoning system called the InCA (Intelligent Cyber Attribution) framework that is designed to aid an analyst in the attribution of a cyber-operation even when the available information is conflicting and/or uncertain. Our approach combines argumentation based reasoning, logic programming, and probabilistic models to not only attribute an operation but also explain to the analyst why the system reaches its conclusions.