Social and economic impacts of changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

HOLLIDAY, N. P.; ANSORGE, I.; BURMEISTER, K. ; CAMPOS, E.; CHIDICHIMO, M. P.; DE YOUNG, B.; HEYMANS, S. ; HOUNPKÉ, J.; JACKSON, L. C.; LAMONT, T.; LEE, S.-K.; SAMS, C.; PEREZ, R. C.; SNOWDEN, J.; ZINKANN, A.-C.

Hamburgo

Conferencia; AMOC Observation Needs in a Changing Climate; 2023

University of Hamburg

People living in coastal zones, islands and continents surrounding the Atlantic Ocean experienceweather, climate and marine conditions that are directly impacted by the Atlantic Meridional OverturningCirculation (AMOC). Changes in the strength of the AMOC can have serious environmental,social and economic impacts on timescales of years to decades. The ability for communities to planmitigation and adaptation to future change in the AMOC depends on reliable projections and goodknowledge of the chains of physical, chemical and biological processes that lead to societal and economicimpacts. The ocean research community has collaboratively implemented a sparse AMOCobserving system that provides the only accurate source of information of the present-day currentsand their evolution over the past 20 years. However, the challenge for planning is that future scenarioprojections were given a ‘low confidence’ rating by the Intergovernmental Panel for ClimateChange in 2021 because of model inconsistencies with observations. Furthermore, knowledge aboutways in which the AMOC affects society-relevant environmental conditions is scattered throughoutacademic literature and can be difficult or even impossible for potential users to access. Here wepresent a summary of the state of knowledge about AMOC-led environmental change that directlyaffects people and their livelihoods, highlighting priority areas for research and for the provision ofactionable knowledge.