Transit Ridership Forecasting at Station Level: an approach based in Regression Models, Distance Decay functions and GIS

CARDOZO, OSVALDO DANIEL; GUTIERREZ PUEBLA, JAVIER; GARCIA-PALOMARES, JUAN CARLOS

Journal of Transport Geography. The International Journal Focusing on Transport and Spatial Change

Elsevier

Lugar: Oxford; Año: 2011 p. 1 - 24

1472-3417

This article develops a rapid response ridership forecast model, based on the combined use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), distance decay functions and multiple regression models. The number of passengers boarding at each station in the Madrid Metro network is estimated as a function of the characteristics of the stations (type, number of lines, location, etc.) and of the areas they serve (population and employment characteristics, land use mix, street density, presence of competing/feeder modes, etc.). The paper considers the need to evaluate the distance threshold used (and not the choice of a fixed distance threshold by assimilation from other studies), the distance calculation procedure (network distance versus straight line distance) and above all the use of distance decay functions within the service area (so that the data from the fringes nearer the stations have a greater weighting in the model than those farther away). Analyses carried out show that weighting the variables according to the distance decay functions provides systematically better results. The choice of the distance threshold also significantly improves results. However, conclusive results have not been obtained on the influence of the method of calculating the distance (in a straight line or through the network). The demand forecast values obtained have been compared with those obtained from the four-step model.