Spatio-temporal dengue model with social interaction: humans, mosquitoes, virus and environment

FABIANA LAGUNA; KARINA LANERI

CABA

Conferencia; International Conference on Statistical Physics; 2019

Themain vector for dengue virus, Aedesaegypti,lives in close connection with humans as their females prefer to laidtheir eggs in artificial water containers.Therefore, prevention campaigns are often centered on the discard ofthose containers. Mosquito development stages, specially in theaquatic phase, as well as oviposition rate, are very sensible totemperature. After mosquitoes bite an infected human, the virus hasto be incubated for a given time inside mosquitoes for the diseasetransmission to take place. This incubation time also stronglydepends on temperature. In these ways, environment, virus, mosquitoesand humans become intertwined. Additionally, previous studies showthat human mobility is very important for the spatial denguepropagation. Duringa dengue outbreak, infected people is treated at the hospital mainlywith paracetamol to lower fever, recommending resting and avoidingmosquito bites during the fever episodes. At the same time, healthypeople in an infected environment will protect themselves of mosquitobites by the use of repelers to decrease the risk of infection. Thetwo actions, i. e. protection of healthy people and isolation ofinfecteds influence the propagation and disease transmissionintensity.Wepresent numerical simulations with a spatio-temporalSusceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model of denguepropagation among humans, coupled with a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected(SEI) for mosquitoes. The model includes the effect of propaganda andsocial interaction and mobility. Results indicate that weeklycontainer discard is very effective even if it?s not veryefficiently done.