Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Systems

CABRÉ M .F.; NUÑEZ M. N.

Barcelona

Workshop; CMIP6 Model Analysis Workshop; 2019

Barcelona Supercomputing Center

Climate change is expected to impact considerably on agricultural production, activity of great importance in the Argentinean economy. In this context, there has been an increasing interest on how climate change could affect areas of agricultural production and yield crops. In this context, perennial crop production, such as viticultural production, is considered highly vulnerable to climate change. Recently, Cabré and Nuñez, (2018) have assessed the impacts of climate change on viticulture using climatic projections from the IPSL-CM5A-MR model for two temporal horizons (2015-2039, 2075-2099) under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) [submitted to Climatic Change]. This model has been chosen for being the best for the study region among 24 climate models from CMIP5 Project (3CN, 2014). The analysis was carried out taking into account which could be possible geographical shifts of Argentinean winegrowing regions Results showed that a significant southwestward displacement of winegrowing regions is projected to occur, mainly for 2075-2099 under RCP8.5 scenario. This southwestward displacement may face both opportunities and/or challenges on Argentinean viticulture, because some winemaking regions could be favored; while other winemaking regions could be disadvantaged, especially by 2075-2099 under RCP8.5. These outcomeswere thought in terms of changes in vineyards location, varieties selection, quality and quantity of grapevines andcould be very useful for the impact community related to the wine sector. In this context, similar studies of impacts of climate change on viticulture or on any agricultural system could be of valuable importance for our country. Accordingly, the results of CMIP6 models could be used for going on with future works, validating the CMIP6 Project models for different regions in Argentina, choosing the best results for present climate and using them for future climate with the new socioeconomic scenarios in order to study the possible impacts of future climate conditions on agricultural systems.