Understanding climate change impacts on plant distributions in the Andes: challenges and opportunities

CAROLINA TOVAR; ANDREA F. CARRIL; ALVARO G. GUTIÉRREZ; ANTJE AHRENDS; LLUIS FITA; PABLO ZANINELLI; PEDRO FLOMBAUM; ANA M. ABARZÚA; DIEGO ALARCON; VALERIA ASCHERO; SELENE BÁEZ; AGUSTINA BARROS; JULIETA CARILLA; M. EUGENIA FERRERO; SUZETTE G.A. FLANTUA; PAÚL GONZÁLES; CLAUDIO G. MENÉNDEZ; OSCAR A. PÉREZ-ESCOBAR; ANÍBAL PAUCHARD; ROMINA C. RUSCICA; TIINA SARKINEN; ANNA A. SÖRENSSON; ANA M. SRUR; RICARDO VILLALBA; PETER M. HOLLINGSWORTH

JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY

WILEY-BLACKWELL PUBLISHING, INC

Año: 2022

0305-0270

Aim: To assess how plant distribution will be affected by climate change in the Andes, a global centre of biodiversity, using a literature review and modelling approach, aiming to propose a research agenda that addresses key knowledge gaps.Location: AndesTaxon: PlantsMethods: We i) conducted a brief review on Andean vegetation responses to past long-, medium-, and short-term climatic changes, ii) analysed future climate projections at 19 locations in the Andes using an ensemble of model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5, iii) modelled changes in the climate envelope area of Andean biomes and compared them to studies that used species distribution models.Results: Future climatic changes (2040-2070) are projected to be stronger at high-elevation areas in the tropical Andes (up to 4°C under RCP 8.5), while in the temperate Andes temperature increases are projected to be up to 2°C. Temperate deciduous forests and the grasslands/steppes from the central and southern Andes will likely have a reduction in suitable climatic space of 30% and 17-23% respectively. The high vulnerability of these biomes contrasts with the low attention received from researchers modelling Andean species distributions. The improvement of these models requires i) filling critical gaps in Andean biological and climate data, ii) high-resolution climate models that sufficiently represent the Andes? complex topography, iii) sufficient data to adequately represent demographic and ecological processes. Main conclusions: Our review shows that potential responses of biomes to climate change can be highly variable in space and time, a finding resonated in numerous studies recording past and present plant responses to climate change. Given the importance of the Andes for biodiversity and ecosystem services, there is a pressing need for a region-wide approach to improve understanding and monitoring efforts of these impacts by filling the proposed knowledge gaps.