NUMEX: a simulation model of urban dynamics for supporting numerical experimentation of alternative policies and strategies towards sustainability.

KAROL, JORGE; MARTINI, IRENE; SAN JUAN, GUSTAVO; DISCOLI, CARLOS; RAVELLA, OLGA; ROSENFELD, ELÌAS

Kaiseslautern, Alemania

Congreso; 8° International Conference of International Urban Planning and Environment Association.; 2008

The paper presents the conceptual and methodological development of a simulation model of urban dynamics, based on the interaction between Energy, Land Use and Mobility patterns, the three most relevant structuring agents of territorial arrangements. The authors seek to (i) relate these critical dimensions of urban systems? sustainability; (ii) identify sustainability gaps as well as the causal processes ? including institutional and decisional process - that produce them; (iii) elaborate scientific communication instruments that support the design and evaluation ? through numerical experimentation - of public policies and intervention strategies upon those processes? critical nodes and (iv) assess the combined effects of alternative strategic trajectories and scenarios. Experiments? results are expressed as variations in Sustainability and Quality of Life indicators. Both the model?s design and experiments run in a research/policy planning interface.