CONICET | Buscador de Institutos y Recursos Humanos

Palaeobotanical-based reconstructions are typically lacking in their poor estimation of statistical error. Therefore, we present the first pre-Quaternary application of two terrestrial climate reconstruction models: CREST (Climate Reconstruction SofTware) and CRACLE (Climate Reconstruction Analysis using Coexistence Likelihood Estimation), that use Bayesian and likelihood estimation probability respectively to generate 2σ confidence intervals, generating a new palaeoclimate reconstruction. These two models are compared to reconstructions generated by the widely applied Co-existence Approach to compare the development of oceanic climates to European continental climates. Our study shows that the UK followed a similar pattern of development to that of continental Europe during the Neogene. Mean Annual Temperature (MAT) declines by 3-6 °C, Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP) declines by 480-600 mm and Precipitation Seasonality approximately halves. The decline in MAT, MAP and Precipitation Seasonality is interrupted by a brief increase throughout the Zanclean and Piacenzian, before resuming into the Gelasian. All three models reconstruct the same general pattern but the Co-existence Approach reconstructs the most exaggerated changes. While the 2σ confidence intervals for CREST are wide, especially for precipitation, the results of CREST and CRACLE overlap with the Co-existence Approach. The UK appears to have had a milder, wetter, and less seasonal climate than continental Europe records suggest. This is likely due to the buffering effects of the Atlantic Ocean and North Sea which ameliorated the UK Neogene climate despite regional and global changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation.

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