A multi-scale model of virus pandemic: Heterogeneous interactive entities in a globally connected world

DAMIAN KNOPOFF; NICOLA BELLOMO

Jornada; The socio-economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic @GROWINPROModelling, empirics and policy design; 2020

This paper is devoted to the multidisciplinary modelling of a pandemic initiated byan aggressive virus, specifically the so-called SARS?CoV?2 Severe Acute RespiratorySyndrome, corona virus n.2. The study is developed within a multiscale frameworkaccounting for the interaction of different spatial scales, from the small scale of the virusitself and cells, to the large scale of individuals and further up to the collective behaviourof populations. An interdisciplinary vision is developed thanks to the contributions ofepidemiologists, immunologists and economists as well as those of mathematical mod-ellers. The first part of the contents is devoted to understanding the complex features ofthe system and to the design of a modelling rationale. The modelling approach is treatedin the second part of the paper by showing both how the virus propagates into infectedindividuals, successfully and not successfully recovered, and also the spatial patterns,which are subsequently studied by kinetic and lattice models. The third part reportsthe contribution of research in the fields of virology, epidemiology, immune competition,and economy focussed also on social behaviours. Finally, a critical analysis is proposedlooking ahead to research perspectives.