Spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue 2009 outbreak in Córdoba City, Argentina

ESTALLO, E.L; CARBAJO, A.E; GRECH, M; FRÍAS CESPEDES, M; LÓPEZ, L; LANFRI, M.A; LUDUEÑA- ALMEIDA, F.F; ALMIRÓN, W.R

ACTA TROPICA

ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV

Lugar: Amsterdam; Año: 2014

0001-706X

During  2009  the  biggest  dengue  epidemic  to  date  occurred  in  Argentina,  affecting almost half the country. We studied the spatio-temporal dynamics of the outbreak in the second most populated city of the country, Córdoba city. Confirmed cases and the results of an Aedes aegypti monitoring during the outbreak were geolocated. The imported cases begun in January, and the autochthonous in March. 33% of the 130 confirmed cases were imported, and occurred mainly in the center of the city. The autochthonous cases were more  frequent  in  the  outskirts,  specially  in  the  NE  and  SE.  Aedes  aegypti  infestation showed  no  difference  between  neighborhoods  with  or  without  autochthonous  cases, neither  between  neighborhoods  with  autochthonous  vs.  imported  cases.  The neighborhoods with imported cases presented higher population densities. The majority of autochthonous cases occurred at ages between 25 and 44 years old. Cases formed a spatio-temporal cluster of up to 20 days and 12 km. According to a mathematical model that  estimates  the  required  number  of  days  needed  for  transmission  according  to  daily temperature, the epidemic ended when more than 15 days were needed. This may be a coarse estimation of mean mosquito survival in the area, provided that the study area is close to  the global distribution limit of the vector, and that cases  prevalence  was  very low.