A stochastic population dynamics model for Aedes Aegypti

V. ROMEO AZNAR; H. G. SOLARI

Buzios

Workshop; Latin American Workshop on Nonlinear Phenomena; 2009

<!-- @page { margin: 2cm } P { margin-bottom: 0.21cm } --> Dengue is an emergent/re-emergent disease with global impact. Dengue is produced by an arbovirus of the family Flaviviridae and genre flavivirus, and is transmitted by the bitting of an infected mosquito, being the most common vector Aedes aegypti. Accurate knowledge of mosquito abundances ahead of time is needed if preventive measures are to be taken to avoid dengue epidemic outbreaks. This knowledge is also needed to asses the efficacy of control measures and monitoring eradication programs. While our earlier work did not consider the influence of the rains in egg hatching as rain and humidity are usually not limiting factors in the region then under study (Buenos Aires area) a general Aedes aegypti simulation requires the incorporation of the rain factor. As a first approach to the problem, we studied the emergence of larvae in a natural setting (larvae-trap) and its dependence with rain fall and temperature. We discuss an improved Aedes aegypti stochastic model that incorporates the lessons learned in the field studies.