Modeling the impact of rural population dynamics on land-use change in the Atlantic Forest of Argentina (1970-2030).

A. E. IZQUIERDO; H. R. GRAU; T. M. AIDE

Bragança, Portugal.

Conferencia; IUFRO Landscape Ecology International Conference; 2010

IUFRO

Globally, there is a trend toward population urbanization and reduction in rural population. This trend could provide opportunities to reduce tropical deforestation, particularly in regions where deforestation is driven by subsistence agriculture conducted by rural inhabitants. In this study, we analyzed the importance of rural population as a driver of deforestation from 1970 to the present in the Atlantic Forest of, Argentina, a global conservation priority. Based on the trends and associations between rural population and land cover change between 1970 and 2006, we built a model of future scenarios of land cover, which run up to 2030. Between 1970 and 2001, rural population change was highly correlated with the deforestation rate (r2=0.82; p<0.005). In all scenarios, based on both rural population change and government land use restrictions, native forest cover is expected to decrease substantially by 2030; from 50% of the total province area in 2006, to 37% in the most favorable scenario to 17% in the most pessimistic scenario. The work exemplifies how rural human demography plays a key role in forest conservation in some ecosystems of very high conservation value, where the subsistence agriculture, conducted by rural inhabitants is a driver of deforestation.