Evaluation of interpolation methods for the prediction of urban methane concentrations

STADLER, CARLA; FUSÉ, VICTORIA S.; LINARES, SANTIAGO; JULIARENA, PAULA

Urban Climate

Elsevier B.V.

Lugar: Ginebra; Año: 2023 vol. 49 p. 1 - 14

2212-0955

Having data about atmospheric concentrations in an entire urban area is difficult, hence interpolation methods are helpful. Their choice will depend on minimising the error. In this work, two deterministic (Inverse Distance Weight and Local Polynomial Interpolation) and two stochastic methods (Simple and Ordinary Kriging) were applied to predict seasonal and annual atmospheric methane (CH4) concentration means. Two sampling networks were designed in an intermediate city, covering a wide variety of urban densities, with different sampling site numbers. The main objective was to find the interpolation model that best predicts CH4 concentration and to analyse if the network´s expansion improves the metric errors - the mean error (ME) and the root-mean-square error (RMSE). The ME values were close to zero in all cases, and the stochastic methods had the smallest RMSE for both networks. Besides, adding more sampling sites improved up to 50% of the RMSE values. Finally, an integrated map was obtained incorporating all the best interpolation models, which gave a difference of