Searching for an elusive anuran: a detection model based on weather forecasting for the Tandilean red-belly toad

FRIEDMAN, M.; CEPEDA, R.; CORTELEZZI, A.; SIMOY, M. V.; MARINELLI, C.; KACOLIRIS, FEDERICO PABLO; DOPAZO, J.; BERKUNSKY, I.

Herpetological Conservation and Biology

Herpetological Conservation and Biology

Año: 2016 vol. 11 p. 476 - 485

1931-7603

The study of elusive anurans requires efficient approaches to monitoring. In this work we described climatic variables associated with the probability of detection of the Tandilean Red-belly Toad (Melanophryniscus aff. montevidensis); an elusive, threatened and endemic species of highland grasslands of Argentine pampas. As expected for an explosive breeder, the probability of detection was heavily associated with rainfall during the previous day. Soil water storage and daily temperatures influenced detection probability. We did not find a link between the season in which surveys were conducted and detection probability. The low number of days during the year when conditions are suitable for breeding by Tandilean Red-belly Toad requires the development of an efficient field survey. The tool we have developed using weather forecast to predict detection probability provides a practical approach to effectively sampling this elusive species of conservation concern.