Multilevel Poisson model to estimate associations between environmental Contaminants and prostate cancer incidence in Córdoba, Argentina.

ROMÁN MARÍA DOLORES; ABALLAY LAURA; NICLIS CAMILA; LANTIERI MARÍA JOSEFINA; DÍAZ MARÍA DEL PILAR; MUÑOZ SONIA

Florencia

Conferencia; International Biometric Conference; 2014

International Biometric Society

Environmental exposure to natural and anthropic pollutants, as arsenic and pesticides, has been associated with an increased incidence of several types of cancer. In Argentina, incidence pattern of prostate (PC) in relation to arsenic and pesticide exposure has still not been described.PC Age Standardized Incidence Rates (ASIRs) were estimated with Provincial Tumor Registry of Córdoba data. Cumulative exposure indexes were built to quantify exposure to commonly used chemicals in the territory of Córdoba (glyphosate, cypermethrin and ?opera?) from 1997 to 2007. To arsenic exposure were used measurements of rural water wells used to population water supply. A multilevel Poisson coefficient model was fitted to estimate the association between environmental exposure to pollutants and PC incidence patterns in Córdoba, Argentina. PC ASIRs of each district were the outcome (level 1), into each county (level 2) of Córdoba. Arsenic mean concentration of each district, exposure to each pesticides and lung cancer mortality as a surrogate for tobacco smoking, were included as fixed effects in level 1. Socioeconomic development of the counties was included as a random coefficient of second level. It was observed that ASIRs show a significant regionalization in the counties. However, the PC incidence differs between counties not consistently with the socioeconomic development. Arsenic content that exceeds the limits permitted for human consumption (10μg / L) and higher exposure to cypermethrin were positively associated to occurrence of PC (IRR 2.242; IC 95% 1.989 - 2.511 and IRR 2,518; IC 95% 0.124 - 5.092, respectively). Lung cancer mortality was significant to explain variability of PC ASIRs. These preliminary results suggest an increased occurrence of PC in populations exposed to contaminants, however, must be considered with caution due to the exploratory ecological study design.