Covid19 impact on the tourism sector of Rocha: scenario analysis for 2020-2021 season

MOGNI VICTORIA; LONDON SILVIA ; ALONSOPEREZ MARIA JOSE

Congreso; 12º Workshop Tourism: Economics and Management; 2020

Socio-economic impact of the Pandemic by COVID 19 is hard to measure. Most countries still have restrictions on their normal social and productive activities. "The economic crisis it is causing (...) is an event that has no unprecedented in the modern economy and probably has associated with the most disruptive effects since World War II or even since the Great Depression" (Capurro et al, 2020).One of the most injured sectors in its activity, and with consequences not yet projected in the medium term, is Tourism. According to the OECD, this activity will be 45 to 70% decreased because of border closures and physical estrangement restrictions (in Elias et al, 2020). The economic impact will undoubtedly be differential according to the size of the tourism operators and their ability to adapt to the new regulations. It is also important to distinguish between destinations that are active throughout the year, and destinations that operate in season, particularly those of Sun and Beach.Hence, the objective of this work is to carry out an exploratory analysis of data for the municipality of Rocha (Uruguay) and possible projections on the level of tourist activity before the impact of socio-economic restrictions (national and international) due to the health emergency. Rocha is characterized by having mainly internal tourism (Rocha?s Intendencia and MINTUR data), while international tourism is mainly Argentine, amounting to 27% of the total in January-February 2020.This paper considers recent reports on the supply side (accommodation capacity) and the possibility to adequate its characteristics to new norms, and demand for tourist services. Based on this, the supply and demand determinants are formulated, and different scenarios are planned for activity 2020-2021. Based on the outcome, it is estimated that the results are strongly conditioned on the behavior of Uruguayan tourists, intra-country tourism competition, and the adequacy of the supply.