Developing applicable climate science for agriculture and hydrological sectors in Argentina

OLGA PENALBA; MARÍA LAURA BETTOLLI; VANESA PÁNTANO; MERCEDES POGGY; JUAN ANTONIO RIVERA

Durham

Congreso; 21st International Congress of Biometeorology; 2017

Argentina, located in Southern South America, is a latitudinal extension country which presents different climates. The complexity of precipitation regimes is of undeniable climatological interest, and an understanding of their characteristic features also has economic relevance. In a changing climate, it is highly valuable to understand possible future changes in both extreme events. However, in order to put potential future changes in context, the present day must be first well understood.Rainfall extremes -excess and deficit- were analysed. These extreme events are complex phenomena and different in their genesis. Even more, its impact on affected sector - agriculture and hydrology- is different. In this context, this research analyzes climatic indices ?Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Streamflow Index, Soil Hidryc Conditions, Daily Intensity Extreme Rainfall, Long Dry Sequences? in order to know the frequency and magnitude of these phenomena and the temporal and spatial variability. Then, the atmospheric circulation during specific extreme events is explored to determine regional and global atmospheric-oceanic forcings. Finally, the projected changes were evaluated in drought (frequency, duration and severity); and in the main meteorological variables involved in soil-atmosphere interaction, to evaluate the potential impact on soil hydric condition.One of the results, related to climate change on main drought characteristics, is that the multi-model ensemble tends to produce less number of droughts, with higher duration and lower severity. Therefore, the region can experience more frequent water shortages with significant economic losses if proper adaptation measures are not proposed.These studies attempt to contribute in the knowledge and information about climate extreme events, variability, predictions and projections for managing weather and climate risk in Argentina.